Surging U.S. Centenarian Population Requires Action – Center for Retirement Research

The growth in the over-100 population is gob-smacking. In 30 years, Pew reports that the number of U.S. centenarians will quadruple to more than 400,000. To get a sense of what this will mean, picture every resident in Tampa, Fla., being over 100. In 1950, only 2,300 people in the entire country were.

Most centenarians today are women and will be in the future but men are also living longer. Men will make up about a third of them in 2054, up from a fifth currently, according to Pew.

The rapid growth in the over-100 population is part of a larger trend of an aging nation, which creates three pressing policy concerns.

First, all these old people are going to need a lot more caregivers. Daughters usually take care of their aging parents. But someone who lives to 100 might either outlive their children or their children might be too old to care for them.

The systems currently in place are already under strain as baby boomers increasingly need care. Caregiving is difficult, low-paid work. Job openings for in-home aides are going unfilled, and staff turnover at nursing homes and assisted living facilities is a chronic problem.

Another issue is the financial drain on individuals of an extremely long retirement. Already, about four in 10 workers today workers today are not on track with their 401(k) savings and may experience a drop in their standard of living when they retire.

Amid rising longevity, many older workers are taking steps to improve their retirement outlook by working longer to save more and hold out for a larger monthly Social Security benefit. But even if someone delays retiring until 70 and then lives to 90 or 100, they will need enough savings to cover two or three decades.

Finally, unless policymakers act, the Social Security trust fund is expected to be depleted in the 2030s, and the payroll taxes paid by workers will provide only about three-fourths of the revenues required to cover retirees’ benefits.

Social Security’s fiscal problems will have to be addressed at the same time that the Medicare program is being increasingly burdened by the cost of medical care for the growing elderly population.

These fiscal problems with be compounded by fertility declines. As more people live to 90, 100 or beyond, there will be fewer and fewer workers funding each retiree. This is a problem throughout developed countries and not just in the United States.

Meeting the growing need for caregivers, doing more to encourage retirement saving, and repairing Social Security’s and Medicare’s finances – these are pressing issues that Congress needs to address. The clock is ticking.

Squared Away writer Kim Blanton invites you to follow us @SquaredAwayBC on X, formerly known as Twitter. To stay current on our blog, join our free email list. You’ll receive just one email each week – with links to the two new posts for that week – when you sign up here.  This blog is supported by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.