St. Petersburg Housing Market Forecast 2024: Will it Crash?

The St. Petersburg housing market is currently in a hot state, with home prices rising at a rapid pace. There are several factors driving the hot housing market in St. Petersburg. St. Petersburg is one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States, and its population is expected to continue to grow in the coming years. This increase in demand for housing is driving up prices.

The supply of housing in St. Petersburg is limited. This is due to a number of factors, including the city’s rapid growth and the fact that much of the land in the city is already developed. The limited supply of housing is also contributing to rising prices.

It is impossible to say for certain whether or not the St. Petersburg housing market will crash in 2024. However, there are a few factors that could lead to a crash. First, the interest rate environment could change. If interest rates rise, it will become more expensive to borrow money to buy a home. This could lead to a decrease in demand for housing and a decline in prices.

Second, the economy could weaken. If the economy enters a recession, it could lead to job losses and a decrease in incomes. This could also lead to a decrease in demand for housing and a decline in prices.

However, it is important to note that the St. Petersburg housing market has been very resilient in the past. The city has experienced a number of economic downturns, but the housing market has always recovered. This is because St. Petersburg is a desirable place to live, and there is always a strong demand for housing in the city.

Current St. Petersburg Housing Market Trends

How is the Housing Market Doing Currently?

The St. Petersburg housing market has experienced a notable surge in January 2024, with home prices witnessing a substantial increase of 10.1% compared to the previous year. According to Redfin, the median price for homes in St. Petersburg now stands at $408K. On average, homes are spending 40 days on the market, a slight uptick from 39 days last year. The month saw a total of 288 homes being sold, marking an increase from the 281 homes sold during the same period in the previous year.

How Competitive is the St. Petersburg Housing Market?

St. Petersburg’s housing market exhibits a competitive nature, where homes typically sell in a swift 32 days. The competition is evident with some homes receiving multiple offers. On average, homes sell for approximately 3% below the list price and go pending in around 32 days. However, there are exceptions where certain properties manage to sell for around the list price and go pending in an impressive 8 days.

• Sale-to-List Price: The sale-to-list price ratio is currently at 96.7%, marking a +0.4 pt year-over-year increase.
• Homes Sold Above List Price: 9.0% of homes are sold above the list price, reflecting a -6.6 pt year-over-year decrease.
• Homes with Price Drops: 41.1% of homes experience price drops, showing a -0.92 pt year-over-year decline.

Are There Enough Homes for Sale in St. Petersburg to Meet Buyer Demand?

The current housing market in St. Petersburg is witnessing a balance between supply and demand. The average time homes spend on the market indicates a relatively healthy demand, with a significant number of properties receiving multiple offers. The market also shows flexibility, with certain homes selling above the list price in a short span.

Examining migration and relocation trends from November ’23 to January ’24 reveals interesting insights into the movement of homebuyers in and out of St. Petersburg.

• Movement Within the Metropolitan Area: 70% of homebuyers looked to stay within the metropolitan area, indicating a significant preference for local relocation.
• Outbound Migration: Surprisingly, 30% of St. Petersburg homebuyers searched to move out of the city during the specified period.

Delving into the origin of incoming homebuyers, 2% of buyers were looking to move into St. Petersburg from outside metros. New York emerged as the leading contributor to this trend, with homebuyers from the city showing the highest interest, followed by Washington and Chicago.

This shift in migration patterns adds an additional layer to the St. Petersburg housing market dynamics, showcasing the interconnectedness of local and national factors influencing real estate trends.

What is the Future Market Outlook for St. Petersburg?

The outlook for the St. Petersburg housing market appears optimistic, given the recent positive trends in home prices and sales. The increased demand, coupled with a competitive market, suggests a continued growth trajectory. However, it is crucial to monitor various factors such as economic conditions and interest rates to gauge the sustainability of this growth.

St. Petersburg Housing Market Forecast for 2024 and 2025

The key question on everyone’s mind is whether the St. Petersburg housing market is susceptible to a crash. As of January 31, 2024, Zillow reports an average home value of $367,276, reflecting a 4.3% increase over the past year. The market’s vitality is further emphasized by the swift pace of transactions, with homes going to pending status in around 30 days.

Housing Metrics Explained

For Sale Inventory

The Saint Petersburg housing market boasts a diverse inventory, with 1,873 homes for sale as of January 31, 2024. This variety provides potential buyers with numerous options to explore, catering to different preferences and requirements.

New Listings

525 new listings entered the market in January 31, 2024, signaling ongoing activity and growth. The influx of new listings contributes to the vibrancy of the real estate scene in Saint Petersburg.

Median Sale to List Ratio

As of December 31, 2023, the median sale to list ratio stands at 0.973. This ratio, indicative of market competitiveness, highlights the balance between listing prices and actual sale prices, providing insights for both sellers and buyers.

Median Sale Price

The median sale price for homes in Saint Petersburg, recorded at $355,000 as of December 31, 2023, reflects the market’s valuation trend. This figure is essential for sellers in setting realistic expectations and for buyers in making informed decisions.

Median List Price

Looking at January 31, 2024, the median list price is reported as $411,495. This figure serves as a benchmark for sellers, guiding them in pricing their homes competitively within the current market conditions.

Percent of Sales Over and Under List Price

As of December 31, 2023, the Saint Petersburg housing market witnessed a 12.2% percent of sales over list price, indicating the demand and potential competition for certain properties. Conversely, 71.6% percent of sales under list price suggests opportunities for buyers to negotiate and find favorable deals.

Is Saint Petersburg a Buyer’s or Seller’s Housing Market?

Assessing whether the Saint Petersburg housing market favors buyers or sellers involves examining various factors, including inventory levels, pricing trends, and market dynamics. With 1,873 homes for sale and 525 new listings entering the market as of January 31, 2024, buyers have a diverse range of options to explore.

However, the median list price of $411,495 indicates a competitive landscape, potentially favoring sellers. Additionally, the 12.2% percent of sales over list price suggests a degree of competition among buyers, further tilting the balance in favor of sellers. Overall, while buyers have options, the market conditions lean towards favoring sellers, requiring buyers to act strategically.

Are Home Prices Dropping in Saint Petersburg?

As of January 31, 2024, Saint Petersburg’s housing market reflects a trend of 4.3% increase in average home value over the past year. While individual property prices may fluctuate, the overall trend suggests a gradual appreciation in home values. However, it’s essential to monitor market conditions and consult real estate professionals for localized insights into specific neighborhoods and property types.

Will the Saint Petersburg Housing Market Crash?

While no one can predict with certainty whether a housing market will crash, the current indicators in the Saint Petersburg market do not suggest an imminent crash. The market’s stability, coupled with steady appreciation in home values, indicates resilience and sustainable growth. However, external factors such as economic downturns or unforeseen events can influence market dynamics. Monitoring key metrics and seeking guidance from real estate experts can help individuals make informed decisions amidst market uncertainties.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in Saint Petersburg?

Deciding whether it’s a good time to buy a house in Saint Petersburg depends on various factors, including personal circumstances, financial readiness, and long-term goals. While the market exhibits signs of seller-favorable conditions, such as competitive pricing and a portion of sales going over list price, buyers can still find opportunities to make favorable purchases. However, prospective buyers should conduct thorough research, assess their financial readiness, and consult with real estate professionals to determine if the current market aligns with their objectives.

Investing in the St. Petersburg Real Estate Market

1. Population Growth and Trends

St. Petersburg is currently experiencing population growth, positioning it as one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States. This surge in population contributes significantly to the demand for housing, creating a favorable environment for real estate investment.

2. Economy and Jobs

• Steady Economic Growth: The city’s economy is on a steady upward trajectory, providing a stable foundation for real estate investment.
• Job Opportunities: The flourishing economy translates into increased job opportunities, further driving the demand for housing in St. Petersburg.

3. Livability and Other Factors

• Desirability: St. Petersburg is renowned for its high livability, making it an attractive destination for individuals and families seeking a quality living environment.
• Infrastructure Development: Ongoing and planned infrastructure developments enhance the city’s appeal, positively impacting real estate values.
• Cultural Attractions: The city’s cultural attractions contribute to its charm, making it a sought-after location for residents and potentially increasing property values.

4. Rental Property Market Size and Growth

The rental property market in St. Petersburg is substantial, presenting a lucrative opportunity for investors:

• Current Market Size: The rental property market is sizable, catering to a diverse tenant pool.
• Growth Potential: With the city’s population growth and economic prosperity, the rental market is poised for further expansion, offering long-term investment potential.

5. Other Factors Related to Real Estate Investing

• Supply and Demand Dynamics: The limited supply of housing in St. Petersburg, coupled with robust demand, creates a favorable environment for property appreciation.
• Historical Market Resilience: St. Petersburg’s housing market has shown resilience in the face of economic downturns, instilling confidence in investors regarding long-term stability.

Considering the city’s population growth, thriving economy, high livability, and the potential for rental property market expansion, St. Petersburg emerges as a sound option for real estate investors. However, like any investment, thorough research, and a careful assessment of individual financial goals and risk tolerance are crucial before making investment decisions.

References:

• https://www.zillow.com/home-values/26922/saint-petersburg-fl/
• https://www.redfin.com/city/16164/FL/St-Petersburg/housing-market