Seattle Housing Market Trends and Forecast for 2024

How is the Seattle housing market doing currently? In January 2024, the Seattle housing market exhibited distinctive trends. Seattle reported 895 active listings, marking a 1.54% decrease from January 2023. In contrast, All of King County experienced a more substantial drop, with an 18.57% decrease.

Brokers in Seattle recorded 355 closed sales, reflecting a 0.57% year-over-year increase. Conversely, All of King County saw a 2.99% increase in closed sales. Seattle observed a 7.05% increase in pending sales, totaling 653, while All of King County experienced a -5.55% decrease with 1,719 pending sales.

Seattle’s median sales price remained at $760,000, while King County saw a 5.12% increase to reach $760,000. Seattle reported 2.52 months of supply, and All of King County had a lower 1.78 months. The figures indicate a continued seller’s housing market in the Seattle region.

Is Seattle a Seller’s Housing Market?

Seattle, WA stands out as a balanced market in January 2024, indicating equilibrium between the supply and demand for homes. This equilibrium is mirrored in the median days on the market, which is a crucial metric for gauging the pace of transactions. Homes in Seattle typically spend an average of 49 days on the market, showcasing a harmonious balance between buyers and sellers. To better understand this, let’s examine the trend over the past few years.

Market Trends and Forecast

In January 2024, the median listing home price, an essential indicator, stood at a noteworthy $790K, marking a 1.4% year-over-year increase. The median listing home price per square foot reached $589. The median home sold price, a crucial aspect for potential buyers and sellers, settled at $750K. What’s particularly intriguing is the sale-to-list price ratio of 99.03%. On average, homes in Seattle, WA sold for 0.97% below the asking price in January 2024, providing valuable insights for those navigating the market.

Median Days on Market Trend

The median days on market in Seattle, WA has been on a fascinating journey. Over the past year, the trend has shown a slight decrease, with homes now selling 49 days after listing. This reflects a strategic advantage for both buyers and sellers, emphasizing the city’s real estate efficiency. The continuous evolution of this metric is indicative of a market that adapts to changing dynamics, creating opportunities for those involved in the real estate landscape.

Monthly Market Update: Prices and Sales Surge Despite Reduced Inventory

Market Recap: An Overview of January 2024

According to Northwest MLS, the real estate market activity remained slow, aligning with expected seasonal trends. Notably, interest rates remained steady throughout January, ending at 6.63%, a slight decrease from the starting rate of 6.69%. What stands out is the 3% year-over-year increase in closed sales transactions, a significant improvement from December 2023’s decrease of 11%. This positive momentum is a testament to the market’s resilience.

Examining the median price for residential homes and condominiums sold in January 2024, a noteworthy uptick of 6.5% was observed compared to January 2023. The median price reached $593,500, showcasing a robust real estate market in the face of prevailing challenges.

Regional Variances in Median Sales Prices

Breaking down the data, it’s fascinating to note that the median sales price experienced a year-over-year increase in 19 out of 26 counties. King County led the way with a median sale price of $760,000, followed closely by San Juan ($757,000) and Snohomish ($700,000). On the flip side, Columbia ($235,000), Pacific ($250,900), and Grays Harbor ($305,000) marked the counties with the lowest median priced homes sold.

Declining Inventory Yet Increasing Sales

One of the most striking aspects of the January 2024 data is the consistent decline in the volume of homes on the market. Across Washington, 15 out of 26 counties witnessed a year-over-year decrease in available inventory. The total number of active listings at the end of January 2024 was 7,084, reflecting a nearly 14% decrease compared to the same period in 2023 (8,220).

Despite this decrease in available inventory, 13 counties reported an increase in the number of homes sold year-over-year. This intriguing trend hints at the adaptability of the market and the determination of buyers and sellers to navigate challenging circumstances.

Condominium Sales Surge

January 2024 witnessed a remarkable surge in condominium sales, recording a substantial 21% year-over-year increase. A total of 492 units were sold during the month. The median price of condominium sales also experienced a notable uptick, rising by 7% from $424,000 in January 2023 to $453,750 in January 2024.

Insights from Real Estate Experts

Mason Virant, associate director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at The University of Washington, provided valuable insights into the market dynamics. He pointed out that seller reluctance contributed to the ongoing decline in year-over-year inventory levels, marking a 14% decrease in active listings. Despite this, there was a 3% improvement in year-over-year sales transactions, showcasing the competitive nature of the market.

Virant emphasized, “Low levels of for-sale inventory have led to increased competition amongst buyers, producing a nearly 7% year-over-year increase in median home prices across the Washington counties covered by the NWMLS.”

Seattle (King County) Housing Market Trends

Below is the most recent Seattle Housing Market Report released by “Northwest MLS.” The report compares the key housing metrics of the City of Seattle (which is part of King County).

Here are the numbers (RESIDENTIAL+CONDO) for January 2024 compared with January 2023.

ACTIVE LISTINGS FOR SALE

• The total active listings in Seattle were 895.
• This represents a decrease of -1.54%% as compared to January 2023.
• The total active listings in All of King County were 1,842.
• This represents a drop of -18.57% as compared to January 2023.

CLOSED SALES

• 355 closed sales were registered by brokers in Seattle.
• This represents a year-over-year increase of 0.57%.
• 1,033 closed sales were registered in All of King County.
• This represents a year-over-year increase of 2.99%.

PENDING SALES

• 653 pending sales were registered by brokers in Seattle.
• This represents a increase of 7.05% from the same month a year ago.
• 1,719 pending sales were registered in All of King County.
• This represents a decrease of -5.55%% from the same month a year ago.

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

• Seattle’s median sales price increased by 0% to $760,000.
• Last year, at this time, the median price in Seattle was $760,000.
• King County’s median price increased by 5.12% to $760,000.
• Last year, at this time, the median price in King County was $723,000.

MONTHS OF INVENTORY (MOI)

• 2.52 months represents the number in Seattle.
• Months of supply in All of King County is 1.78.
• 6 months of supply is when you have a balanced real estate market. 
• This shows that this region continues to be a seller’s housing market.

Why is the Seattle Housing Market So Hot?

Seattle’s housing market is red hot, and it’s due to the influx of high-paid tech employees from companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Facebook. These employees have been seeking more spacious homes with office areas to work remotely during the pandemic, and they have the financial resources to outcompete other buyers and drive up home prices.

Despite an increase in inventory, the Puget Sound region’s housing market remains tight, with less than two months of supply. This means the region continues to be a seller’s market, with a limited number of homes available to meet the high demand from buyers. As a result, home prices are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future.

The city’s vibrant cultural scene, scenic beauty, and excellent quality of life also make it an attractive place to live. Despite the rising prices, Seattle’s housing market continues to attract buyers from all over the country. The city’s strong job market, diverse economy, and progressive values make it a desirable destination for people from different backgrounds and professions. This has resulted in a highly competitive real estate market, where homes are selling quickly and above asking prices.

However, the shortage of housing inventory has become a major concern for the city’s policymakers, as it has led to affordability issues and exclusionary zoning practices. To address these challenges, Seattle has launched several initiatives, such as increasing the supply of affordable housing, promoting sustainable development, and reforming zoning laws. These efforts aim to ensure that Seattle remains an inclusive and livable city for all its residents, regardless of their income or background.

ALSO READ: Which Are The Hottest Markets in Seattle?

ALSO READ: Washington State Housing Market Forecast

Seattle Housing Market Forecast for 2024 and 2025

Current Market Snapshot

According to Zillow, the average home value in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area stands at $697,824, marking a 1.9% increase over the past year. Remarkably, homes in this region typically go pending in a swift 18 days, indicating a robust demand. This data, compiled through January 31, 2024, sets the stage for a closer examination of various key metrics shaping the housing landscape.

Market Forecast

Zillow’s 1-year Market Forecast as of January 31, 2024, predicts a growth rate of 5.3%, underscoring the market’s resilience and potential for continued expansion in the coming months.

Deciphering Housing Metrics

For Sale Inventory

The total number of homes available for sale in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue region as of January 31, 2024, is 5,061. This inventory plays a crucial role in understanding the supply-and-demand dynamics in the market.

New Listings

In January 2024, there were 1,585 new listings, indicating the ongoing vitality of the real estate market in the area. New listings are a key metric reflecting the continuous influx of properties into the market.

Median Sale to List Ratio

As of December 31, 2023, the median sale to list ratio in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area is 1.000, emphasizing the equilibrium between listing prices and actual sale prices. This ratio is a critical indicator of market competitiveness and negotiation dynamics.

Median Sale Price and List Price

As of December 31, 2023, the median sale price stands at $656,667, while the median list price as of January 31, 2024, is $681,667. These figures provide insights into the valuation trends and expectations within the Seattle housing market.

Percent of Sales Over and Under List Price

Examining the market dynamics at the end of December 31, 2023, reveals that 32.7% of sales were over the list price, while 43.8% were under the list price. These percentages shed light on the negotiation dynamics and buyer-seller interactions within the market.

Understanding the Scope

For clarity, the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) encompasses several counties, including King, Pierce, and Snohomish. This vibrant MSA boasts a housing market that plays a significant role in the Pacific Northwest’s overall real estate landscape.

With a housing market of this scale, the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area serves as a bellwether for regional and, to some extent, national real estate trends. Investors, homebuyers, and industry analysts closely monitor the developments in this dynamic market to make informed decisions.

Are Home Prices Dropping in Seattle?

Contrary to a drop, the data reveals a 1.9% increase in the average home value over the past year, reaching $697,824. This positive trajectory indicates a stable and appreciating market, dispelling concerns about a decline in home prices in the near term.

Will the Seattle Housing Market Crash?

Based on the current data and Zillow’s 5.3% 1-year Market Forecast, there are no immediate signs of a housing market crash in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area. The forecasted growth suggests a resilient market, providing assurance to both homeowners and potential buyers.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in Seattle?

Considering the Seller’s Market conditions and the projected growth, the question of whether now is a good time to buy a house depends on individual circumstances. While competition may be intense, the forecasted market growth could result in a favorable investment over time. Prospective buyers are advised to carefully assess their financial situation and long-term goals before making a decision.

REFERENCES

• https://www.nwmls.com/
• https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa/home-values
• https://www.redfin.com/news/seattle-homes-sold-above-list-price/
• https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Seattle_WA/overview
• https://www.rentcafe.com/average-rent-market-trends/us/wa/seattle
• https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/wa/seattle/real-estate
• https://seattlerealestatenews.com/category/info/seattle-monthly-housing-news
• https://www.seattlepi.com/coronavirus/article/best-time-to-buy-or-sell-a-house-during-pandemic-15287608.php