Maine Housing Market: Price, Trends, Predictions 2024

The data and trends observed in the Maine housing market do not indicate an imminent crash. Despite fluctuations in sales figures across counties, the overall market remains dynamic, with median sales prices showcasing growth or stability. Factors such as historically low for-sale inventory, softened mortgage interest rates as compared to last year, and single-digit year-over-year price appreciation contribute to a resilient market. While challenges exist, the balanced nature of Maine’s real estate suggests a robust foundation that mitigates the likelihood of a market crash in the near future.

How is the Maine housing market doing currently?

1. Rise in Home Values

According to recent data from the Maine Association of REALTORS®, in January 2024, the median sales price (MSP) for single-family homes in Maine soared to $353,000, marking an impressive 8.62 percent increase from the same month in 2023. This surge in home values indicates a robust market and showcases the enduring appeal of Maine’s real estate.

2. Sales Activity

While the sales figures experienced a slight dip of 1.98 percent, with 743 homes changing hands in January 2024 compared to 758 in the previous year, the market remains active. This nuanced decrease does not overshadow the positive developments taking place within the real estate sector.

3. Positive News for Buyers

Paul McKee, the 2024 President of the Maine Association of REALTORS®, brings optimistic tidings for buyers in the state. Despite the historical lows in for-sale inventory, McKee notes an upward trend, with mortgage interest rates softening since their peak late in the previous year. Furthermore, year-over-year price appreciation has maintained single-digit growth for three consecutive months.

4. National Context

Looking beyond the state borders, the National Association of Realtors reported a 1.4 percent decrease in sales across the country in January 2024 compared to the same month in 2023. However, the national MSP reached $383,500, reflecting a 5.0 percent increase from the previous year. Regionally, the Northeast experienced a 10.1 percent spike in MSP for single-family homes.

5. Localized Real Estate Dynamics

Paul McKee emphasizes the importance of recognizing that while Maine is a large state, real estate dynamics are inherently local. Whether you are selling or buying, consulting with a REALTOR® early in the process is crucial. They provide valuable insights into local market conditions, for-sale inventory, home values, and negotiation strategies, ensuring a successful and satisfying home purchase.

6. County-wise Statistics

For a more granular understanding of the Maine housing market, let’s delve into the statistics for the month of January statewide and compare the number of existing, single-family homes sold and their median sales prices during the rolling quarter of November 2022/2023, December 2022/2023, and January 2023/2024.

January 2024 Statistics – Statewide

• Median Sales Price: $353,000
• Sales Activity: 743 homes
• Year-over-Year Increase: 8.62%

Rolling Quarter Comparison

The second chart provides a comparative analysis of the number of existing, single-family homes sold (units) and their median sales prices during the rolling quarter spanning November 2022/2023, December 2022/2023, and January 2023/2024.

County-wise Analysis of the Maine Housing Market

Delving into the county-wise statistics for the rolling quarter spanning November 1, 2022, to January 31, 2023, and comparing them with the same period in 2023-24 provides valuable insights into the localized dynamics of the Maine housing market.

• Statewide Trends: The overall number of units sold experienced a modest decrease, with 3,138 homes sold in the 2022-23 period compared to 2,985 in 2023-24, reflecting a 4.88% decline. Conversely, the median sales price statewide witnessed a robust 8.92% increase, soaring from $325,000 to $354,000.
• Androscoggin County: In Androscoggin County, there was an 8.20% decrease in the number of units sold, with 244 homes changing hands in 2022-23 and 224 in 2023-24. However, the median sales price experienced a positive uptick, rising by 4.35% from $287,500 to $300,000.
• Aroostook County: Aroostook County faced a more substantial decline, with a 17.90% reduction in the number of units sold (162 to 133). Interestingly, the median sales price showed resilience, decreasing marginally by 0.36%, from $140,500 to $140,000.
• Cumberland County: Cumberland County, a significant player in the Maine housing market, witnessed a 2.20% dip in the number of units sold (591 to 578). However, the median sales price surged impressively by 16.67%, from $450,000 to $525,000, indicating a strong demand for properties in this region.
• Franklin County: In Franklin County, the number of units sold declined by 6.10%, from 82 to 77. Despite this decrease, the median sales price exhibited a robust increase of 14.11%, climbing from $241,000 to $275,000.
• Hancock County: Hancock County experienced a notable reduction of 20.13% in the number of units sold (159 to 127). However, the median sales price demonstrated resilience, rising by 14.61% from $349,000 to $400,000.
• Kennebec County: Kennebec County showcased a positive trend with an 8.33% increase in the number of units sold, from 264 to 286. The median sales price also exhibited growth, rising by 10.38%, from $260,000 to $287,000.
• Knox County: Knox County faced a substantial 26.50% decline in the number of units sold (117 to 86). However, the median sales price displayed resilience, increasing by 10.67% from $375,000 to $415,000.
• Lincoln County: Lincoln County witnessed a robust 19.51% increase in the number of units sold, from 82 to 98. The median sales price also experienced significant growth, rising by 16.56% from $377,500 to $440,000.
• Oxford County: Oxford County faced a 15.43% decrease in the number of units sold, with 175 homes in 2022-23 compared to 148 in 2023-24. Despite this, the median sales price showcased resilience, growing by 14.99% from $260,900 to $300,000.
• Penobscot County: Penobscot County reported a 9.23% reduction in the number of units sold, from 325 to 295. However, the median sales price displayed a positive trend, increasing by 14.01% from $214,900 to $245,000.
• Piscataquis County: Piscataquis County experienced a 13.51% decrease in the number of units sold, with 74 homes changing hands in 2022-23 compared to 64 in 2023-24. The median sales price, however, exhibited a modest growth of 3.73% from $168,700 to $175,000.
• Sagadahoc County: Sagadahoc County demonstrated an 11.27% increase in the number of units sold, from 71 to 79. The median sales price also grew by 4.38%, from $365,000 to $381,000.
• Somerset County: Somerset County reported a minor 2.36% decrease in the number of units sold, from 127 to 124. However, the median sales price surged impressively by 20.29%, from $170,000 to $204,500.
• Waldo County: Waldo County faced a marginal 1.18% decline in the number of units sold, from 85 to 84. However, the median sales price demonstrated substantial growth, rising by 31.92% from $264,900 to $349,450.
• Washington County: Washington County reported a 4.82% increase in the number of units sold, from 83 to 87. Surprisingly, the median sales price experienced a slight dip of 2.27%, from $220,000 to $215,000.
• York County: In York County, there was a marginal 0.40% decrease in the number of units sold, from 497 to 495. However, the median sales price showed a positive trend, increasing by 2.73% from $440,000 to $452,000.

Is Maine a Buyer’s or Seller’s Housing Market?

Despite a slight dip in overall sales, the nuanced analysis of county-wise data reveals a varied picture. Some counties, such as Cumberland and Waldo, showcase strong demand with increasing median sales prices, signaling a seller’s market. On the other hand, areas like Aroostook and Oxford, facing a decrease in sales, might provide opportunities for buyers. Maine’s real estate market appears to offer a balanced mix, emphasizing the importance of localized insights for both buyers and sellers.

Are Home Prices Dropping in Maine?

Contrary to the notion of dropping home prices, the data from January 2024 paints a different picture for most counties in Maine. While a few areas experienced a decrease in the number of units sold, the median sales prices often demonstrated resilience or substantial growth. Counties like Lincoln, Cumberland, and Waldo witnessed impressive increases, suggesting a stable or appreciating market. This challenges the assumption of widespread price drops, highlighting the importance of considering localized trends within the diverse Maine housing market.

• Maine’s Strong Economy: Maine boasts an unemployment rate below the national average, coupled with a growing economy. These factors attract new residents, consequently driving up the demand for housing.
• Maine’s Desirable Lifestyle: Renowned for its stunning landscapes, superior quality of life, and cost-effectiveness, Maine stands as an attractive location for individuals across various age groups and life stages.
• Limited Housing Supply: The housing supply in Maine is constrained, exerting upward pressure on prices due to the demand surpassing the available options.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in Maine?

Considering the current dynamics, Maine presents opportunities for both buyers and sellers. For buyers, counties with decreasing sales, like Aroostook and Oxford, might offer favorable conditions. Meanwhile, sellers may find advantageous positions in areas like Cumberland and Waldo, where demand remains strong, leading to potential appreciation in property values. The balanced nature of the market, coupled with positive indicators such as softened mortgage interest rates, makes it a favorable time for those contemplating a real estate investment in Maine.

Maine Housing Market Forecast for 2024 and 2025

According to Zillow, the Maine housing market is experiencing significant growth and change. As of January 31, 2024, the average home value in Maine stands at $377,025, reflecting an impressive 8.3% increase over the past year. This notable surge in property values has captured the attention of both buyers and sellers, making the Maine real estate market an intriguing space to explore.

Key Housing Metrics Unveiled

Let’s delve into the various housing metrics to gain a comprehensive understanding of the current Maine real estate scenario:

For Sale Inventory: 3,866 (January 31, 2024)

The available housing inventory in Maine as of January 31, 2024, comprises 3,866 properties. This figure serves as a crucial indicator of the supply-demand balance within the market, influencing pricing and buyer competition.

New Listings: 878 (January 31, 2024)

With 878 new listings entering the market in January 2024, there is a steady influx of properties. This influx contributes to the overall housing stock and provides more options for prospective buyers.

Median Sale to List Ratio: 0.998 (December 31, 2023)

The median sale to list ratio of 0.998 as of December 31, 2023, indicates a closely aligned pricing strategy between sellers and buyers. This ratio is a crucial factor in understanding the negotiation dynamics within the market.

Median Sale Price: $355,000 (December 31, 2023)

The median sale price in Maine reached $355,000 by the end of December 31, 2023. This metric provides a snapshot of the middle point of property prices, serving as a valuable benchmark for buyers and sellers.

Median List Price: $393,300 (January 31, 2024)

As of January 31, 2024, the median list price stands at $393,300, indicating the average listing price of properties available in the market. This figure influences buyer expectations and can impact overall market dynamics.

Percent of Sales Over and Under List Price (December 31, 2023)

Examining the percentages of sales over and under list price reveals valuable insights into market competitiveness. As of December 31, 2023, 35.9% of sales occurred over list price, while 46.9% were under list price. These figures illuminate the negotiation dynamics and the prevalence of competitive bidding in the market.

Maine Regional Housing Market Forecast 

Portland, ME

In Portland, a metropolitan statistical area (MSA), the housing market is expected to show incremental growth. From January 31, 2024, to January 31, 2025, the forecast indicates a steady increase from 0.2% to 6.4%. This projection suggests a positive trajectory, making Portland an area to watch for potential real estate investments or market activity.

Bangor, ME

Similar to Portland, Bangor, another MSA in Maine, anticipates growth in its housing market. The forecast projects an increase from 0.3% on January 31, 2024, to 6.3% by January 31, 2025. This upward trend signifies a potentially favorable market for both buyers and sellers in the Bangor region.

Augusta, ME

Augusta, classified as an MSA, demonstrates a positive forecast, projecting growth in its housing market. The percentage is expected to rise from 0.2% on January 31, 2024, to 8% by January 31, 2025. This substantial increase indicates a potentially thriving real estate market in Augusta, attracting attention from investors and homebuyers alike.

Lewiston, ME

Lewiston, an MSA in Maine, stands out with a robust forecast for housing market growth. From January 31, 2024, with 0.6%, the forecast predicts an increase to 8.6% by January 31, 2025. This notable surge makes Lewiston a noteworthy region, potentially offering lucrative opportunities for those involved in real estate transactions.

References:

• https://www.zillow.com/home-values/28/me/
• https://www.mainerealtors.com/