How Amateur Golfers Fare on the 17th at TPC Sawgrass

With The Players Championship taking place at TPC Sawgrass this week, we thought we would take a look at how amateurs fare when we tackle the infamous island green.

Arguably one of golf’s most iconic holes, the par-3 17th typically plays 120 to 130 yards (give or take). Every year, we see the good, the bad and the ugly on a seemingly innocuous hole where often the tournament is won or lost.

What about amateur golfers? How do the rest of us do?

Can #17 really be that hard?

To answer that question, the team at Shot Scope has pulled stats from their database of more than 350 million shots to give us insight into how average joes fare in their quest to hit and stick on the island green.

Firstly, we look at the chances of hitting the green from 125 yards.

Immediately we see that most of us will likely be either reloading on the tee box or making a trip to the drop zone. 

Even the five-handicap golfers have only a 50/50 chance of finding dry land.

We have seen PGA Tour players hit consecutive balls into the water, and they do this for a living. Imagine the pressure amateurs must feel knowing they have one shot.

When we look at the higher handicap players, with a 1-in-4 or 1-in-5 chance of hitting the green, it could very quickly become an expensive day if using premium balls! (Although if you can afford Sawgrass’s outrageous green fee, it may not be an issue.)

Shot Dispersion on #17

In terms of proximity, with the green measuring approximately 98 feet from left to right, again we are going to have our work cut out.

Remember that this proximity is from the target (the pin) to the ball and so, when we create our proximity circles, the true picture is revealed.

For example, with the five-handicap golfer, we must consider that the player could finish anywhere within a 49-foot radius which, when we complete our proximity circle, grows to 98 feet.

As you can see, a good bit of that area is is over the water.

This basically means even the low single-digit players will do well just to hit the green.

So what happens when we visit the drop zone?

From the drop zone, the hole plays approximately 75 to 100 yards, depending on the day.

As you’d expect, better players have a greater chance of hitting the green. However, when the course is set up the way it is for The Players Championship, we would expect the likelihood of hitting and holding the green to drop.

Regardless, we can see from the numbers above that, in terms of proximity, the majority of amateurs will likely struggle to find the putting surface even when playing from the drop zone.

Ignoring the numbers here, the caliber of shot required to hold the 17th green is ridiculous. It has been said by some that a reload from the tee is easier than playing from the drop zone. 

Choosing the option to re-tee would somewhat contradict what we have learned from performance data which typically suggests that closer to the green is always better.

That said, the 17th at Sawgrass is far from your typical hole.

And with that, we await the first player to tee it up at the island green.

Shot Scope is the Official On-Course Data Provider of MyGolfSpy.

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