Animal Spirits: Enjoy the Bull Market While it Lasts
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On today’s show, we discuss:
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This week’s Talk Your Book:
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The S&P 500 hasn’t had a -2% day since February 21, 2023. “This is the 12th longest such streak since 1928:” Citi’s Stuart Kaiser
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) April 8, 2024
The median S&P 500 Energy sector stock has a larger market cap than the median S&P 500 Technology sector stock. Yet Tech has a weighting of 29.5% and Energy is at 4.2%. pic.twitter.com/Hvrr4jH8lh
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) April 8, 2024
Index funds make up 46% of Fidelity’s assets, but only 6% of its revenue (which was $28b last year, about double entire ETF industry). That gap may be one of the reasons they looking to add ETF surcharge on platform, the optics of which may not be worth the money. pic.twitter.com/3Zu59ysx5Q
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) April 8, 2024
Where I’ve landed
1. Grocery inflation sucks.
2. Interest rates are high.
3. Telling people “the economy is better than your experience of it” is a waste of time
4. But … Unemployment is low, real wages are growing
5. And the natl economy really is better than ppl think —> pic.twitter.com/g3YJ9qlcW8— Derek Thompson (@DKThomp) April 5, 2024
Good news: There was a big jump in the labor force (+469,000) in March. That means more people are looking for work again. This is a great sign of confidence in the economy.
Labor force participation = 62.7%
The slowdown in participation in Dec/Jan/Feb really reversed in… pic.twitter.com/ENCBICz0do— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) April 5, 2024
I often say the US govt isn’t in financial trouble & some accuse me of being a govt agent.
But my optimism about US govt debt extends from my optimism about CORPORATE AMERICA & the fact that US firms are hugely innovative income generating entities that give the USD credibility. https://t.co/qQazAFuiDe
— Cullen Roche (@cullenroche) April 2, 2024
OK, chart time! Starting with the headline: Yet another unexpectedly strong month for job growth. For all the talk of “cooling,” monthly gains have been extremely steady for more than a year. #jobsday https://t.co/rmHl4ryJjR pic.twitter.com/7bWNNYxvSu
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) April 5, 2024
Lumping 55+ together hides important pandemic trends. LFPR is actually above pre-pandemic baseline for 55-64, as it is for 25-54. Down for 65+. The pandemic didn’t simply accelerate retirements. Rather, it seemed to reinforce the 65 breakpoint. pic.twitter.com/80Ono4XBB4
— Jed Kolko (@JedKolko) April 2, 2024
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