A Warning on the End of Demand

If you want to know what the future looks like, you look for futurists that study demographics and geography. The first book in the One-Up Book Club was this kind of book.

After World War II, there was a baby boom. In the United States, this baby boom resulted in the largest generation, totaling 78.8 million people. There are still around 76 million boomers alive, with around 10,000 retiring every day. In 2022 and 2023, the largest number of this generation turned 65 and many of them retired.

There are several things to say about the boomers, including that they are competent, having worked for a long time. They also made a lot of money, with an estimated $53 trillion, some of which is being passed down to Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z, with some going to charities. The average boomer is worth $800,000, excluding home equity, and they have a net worth of $590,000.

Right now, boomers are spending money on health care, home improvement, entertainment, and travel.

Imagine that over the next six years all but 1,000,000 members of this gargantuan generation will be retired. This means the workforce will drop by a number close to 20 percent of the United States. At the same time, the birth rate is lower than the replacement rate. To keep our population stable, the replacement rate must be 2.1 babies per woman, but right now the number is sitting at 1.64, suggesting that we will experience a demographic drought.

1. The baby boomers are going to leave a giant hole in the workforce, without a generation to fill their roles.
2. As the baby boomers leave the planet, they will no longer be spending money.
3. Birth rates are not likely to grow, except for immigrants.

Several Assumptions about the Future

• There are already more companies in every category than necessary competing for revenue.
• As demand wanes, the weakest of the many competitors are likely to evaporate, and with it, their sales force.
• Labor costs will rise, making it more difficult for companies with low demand to compete.
• With lower demand and companies closing, we may see less demand for salespeople. (I am hedging here, because we may need salespeople, though it doesn’t look like the younger non-boomer generations are clamoring for a sales role.)
• AI will remove jobs through robotics and automation, but it may also contribute to unemployment, leaving people without skills struggling in this brave new world.

The End of Demand

In the next six years, the lack of demand may mean there will be little demand for salespeople. With lower demand, the best and most effective salespeople and sales managers will be fully employed and are likely to make more money, as some companies give up the ghost and go home.

Those salespeople who are not competent will have to find new jobs outside of B2B sales. There will always be work that needs to be done, but those who are not highly effective at selling will have a difficult time in B2B sales.

For some time here, I have been trying to alert salespeople, sales leaders, and sales managers that the future is not going to look like the past. The combination of low birthrates and baby boomers disappearing suggests a plummeting of demand. Those who intend to continue to make selling their profession should do everything you can to increase your ability to sell effectively.

If there is lower demand and fewer salespeople, you guessed that you would need fewer sales leaders and sales managers. Like always, there will be haves and have-nots. The haves will do well, and they have-nots are going to have a more difficult time.

If you are the kind of person that reads thesalesblog.com, you have a head start on your competitors and those who are unaware of how different the future will be from the last 100 years, something that will soon be described as the golden age, as demand was never greater.